Compare live California election odds for the 2026 governor’s race, statewide offices, ballot propositions, 51 tracked House districts and Los Angeles mayor. Track market-implied probabilities, venue prices, open interest and volume across Kalshi and Polymarket as the campaign changes.
Prices shown here are live market probabilities, not forecasts — they reflect what traders are willing to pay right now, aggregated across every linked venue. A 62% price means the market currently prices that outcome at roughly 62 cents on the dollar, not that it is 62% likely to occur in any statistical sense.
Where both Kalshi and Polymarket list a race, we show the highest price across venues so the page always reflects the most confident quote available.
California voters will decide far more than the next governor in 2026. This page brings the state’s major election prediction markets together in one place, making it easy to follow the races and ballot questions that could shape Sacramento, California’s congressional delegation and local government.
The live board above tracks market-implied probabilities across Kalshi and Polymarket. It covers the California governor’s race, statewide offices, ballot propositions, 51 tracked U.S. House districts, the expected partisan split of the congressional delegation and the Los Angeles mayoral contest. Prices, open interest and trading volume update as the underlying markets move.
A market price can be read as an implied probability. If an outcome trades at 60 cents, the market is pricing it at roughly 60%. That number is not a poll or a guarantee. It is the collective price set by traders buying and selling contracts based on polling, endorsements, fundraising, news, candidate developments and their interpretation of the market rules.
Where more than one venue lists the same race or proposition, AllTop displays the available venue prices so readers can compare them directly. Differences between Kalshi and Polymarket may reflect liquidity, timing, market rules or different groups of traders. Open interest shows the value of outstanding positions, while volume shows trading activity. A high probability with little activity should be interpreted differently from a heavily traded market.
California has the nation’s largest congressional delegation and a statewide electorate that regularly decides consequential policy through ballot initiatives. The open governor’s race will determine who succeeds Gov. Gavin Newsom, while competitive House districts can influence control of Congress. Statewide propositions can directly change taxes, spending, housing policy, election rules and other areas of public policy.
Because those contests unfold at different levels, this page is designed as a single California election dashboard. Use it to scan the statewide picture, then compare individual candidates, propositions and districts without switching among separate market pages. For broader coverage, visit the 2026 election odds by state or follow the latest politics news and prediction markets.
The live governor board at the top of this page shows the current favorite and the latest prices available from Kalshi and Polymarket. Because prices can change throughout the day, the live board is more current than a fixed percentage in editorial copy.
The California ballot section lists the propositions currently tracked by prediction markets, along with a short description and the market-implied probability of passage. The official ballot and proposition numbering can change before certification, so readers should use California election authorities for the final legal text.
No. Polls measure responses from a sampled population, while prediction market odds come from contract prices set by traders. Markets can respond quickly to new information, but they can also be affected by liquidity, participation and contract wording.
The market data on this page refreshes on a short interval as prices change at the connected venues. The update indicator near the page heading shows the freshness of the live feed.