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2026 Midterm Election Odds

LIVE · updated 7s ago

Live 2026 midterm odds — Senate, House and Governor races — aggregated across Kalshi and Polymarket.

24h volume
$5.1M
Actual USD traded
Open interest
$305.4M
1.6K markets
Active markets
1.3K
551 events
Venues
3
Priced live
SENATE
56%

Republicans have a 56% chance to control the Senate.

By venue
P56%
$28K 24h volume across Kalshi & Polymarket · 91 days to Election Day · Majority: 51 seats
HOUSE
87%

Democrats have a 87% chance to control the House.

By venue
K84%P87%
$59K 24h volume across Kalshi & Polymarket · 91 days to Election Day · Majority: 218 seats
25 races
Senate · 17 races
AK55%
ME64%
VT
NH86%
WA
ID
MT83%
ND
MN94%
WI
MI67%
NY
MA
RI
OR
NV
WY
SD94%
IA59%
IL
IN
PA
NJ
CT
CA
UT
CO
NE75%
MO
KY
OH50%
WV
VA
MD
DE
AZ
NM
KS84%
AR94%
TN
NC91%
SC
DC
OK
LA
MS93%
AL95%
GA92%
HI
TX53%
FL
Governor · 8 races
AK
ME
VT
NH
WA
ID
MT
ND
MN
WI55%
MI84%
NY
MA
RI
OR
NV56%
WY
SD
IA63%
IL
IN
PA
NJ
CT
CA
UT
CO
NE
MO
KY
OH51%
WV
VA
MD
DE
AZ85%
NM
KS74%
AR
TN
NC
SC
DC
OK
LA
MS
AL
GA62%
HI
TX
FL
Safe/Lean D Toss-up Safe/Lean R No 2026 raceVenues pricing the race:KPUS
Lean Democratic · 10
SENGeorgia · Ossoff (D)
US92%
$110K OI
SENMaine · Dem
US64%
$240K OI · $471 vol
SENMichigan · Dem
US67%
$37K OI
SENMinnesota · Dem
P94%US92%
$20K OI · $47 vol
SENNew Hampshire · Dem
US86%
$19K OI
SENNorth Carolina · Cooper (D)
P90%US91%
$47K OI · $1 vol
GOVArizona · Dem
US85%
$16K OI
GOVGeorgia · Bottoms (D)
US62%
$330K OI
GOVIowa · Dem
US63%
$11K OI
GOVMichigan · Dem
US84%
$11K OI
Toss-ups · 7
SENAlaska · Dem
US55%
$20K OI
SENIowa · GOP
P56%US59%
$36K OI · $72 vol
SENOhio · Brown (D)
US50%
$42K OI
SENTexas · Paxton (R)
US53%
$153K OI
GOVNevada · Dem
US56%
$31K OI
GOVOhio · Acton (D)
US51%
$152K OI
GOVWisconsin · Dem
US55%
$26K OI
Lean Republican · 8
SENAlabama · GOP
P95%
$1K OI · $48 vol
SENArkansas · GOP
P94%
$1K OI · $47 vol
SENKansas · GOP
P84%
$6K OI
SENMississippi · GOP
P93%
$4K OI · $1 vol
SENMontana · GOP
P83%
$4K OI
SENNebraska · GOP
P75%US72%
$40K OI · $25 vol
SENSouth Dakota · GOP
P94%
$650 OI · $1 vol
GOVKansas · GOP
US74%
$35K OI
42 districts
AL-01GOP
P94%
$993 OI
AZ-01Dem
P73%
$85 OI · $5 vol
AZ-08GOP
P81%
$199 OI
CA-10Dem
P95%
$782 OI
CA-26Dem
P94%
$1K OI
CA-51Dem
P94%
$371 OI
FL-27GOP
P77%
$707 OI
GA-08GOP
P94%
$870 OI
IA-02Dem
P41%
$83 OI
IL-02Dem
P94%
$839 OI · $5 vol
Senate
Exactly 453%
Exactly 4511%
Exactly 465%
Exactly 466%
Exactly 4710%
47 or fewer24%
Exactly 476%
47-4910%
47-4913%
Exactly 4812%
Exactly 4812%
Exactly 485%
Exactly 4913%
Exactly 4914%
Exactly 495%
Exactly 5016%
Exactly 5014%
Exactly 505%
50-529%
50-5211%
50-525%
Exactly 5113%
Exactly 5114%
Exactly 515%
Exactly 5210%
Exactly 5211%
Exactly 5212%
Exactly 536%
Exactly 534%
Exactly 5310%
53+4%
53+3%
53+5%
Exactly 535%
Exactly 544%
Exactly 546%
Exactly 542%
Exactly 547%
Exactly 553%
Exactly 553%
Exactly 552%
Exactly 555%
Exactly 563%
Exactly 562%
Exactly 566%
Exactly 561%
Exactly 573%
57+1%
Exactly 571%
57+12%
208+4%
208+2%
218+76%
223+5%
235+39%
House
Exactly 02%
Exactly 067%
Exactly 09%
Exactly 05%
Exactly 04%
Exactly 171%
Exactly 175%
Exactly 192%
Exactly 185%
Exactly 133%
Exactly 215%
Exactly 221%
Exactly 24%
Exactly 26%
Exactly 23%
Below 63%
Exactly 615%
Exactly 738%
Below 85%
Exactly 827%
Exactly 82%
Exactly 914%
Exactly 911%
Exactly 106%
Exactly 1027%
Exactly 11<1%
Exactly 1119%
Exactly 1222%
Exactly 1310%
25-293%
30-349%
30-3422%
35-3930%
35-3928%
40-4427%
40-4436%
Exactly 44<1%
Exactly 452%
Exactly 463%
45-4926%
45-491%
Exactly 4721%
Exactly 4859%
Exactly 494%
50-543%
193-19711%
198-20214%
203-20716%
208-21213%
213-21713%
218-2227%
223-2275%
228-2323%
233-2372%
Above 2499%
10 markets
Market
Yes
Venues
Activity
1Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
87%
P
$1.5M OI · $53K vol
2Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
45%
P
$890K OI · $25K vol
17%
K
$3.7M OI · $6K vol
4Will House Control be Republican AND Senate Control be Republican for Feb 2027?
16%
K
$2.2M OI · $4K vol
5Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
56%
P
$424K OI · $3K vol
6Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
14%
P
$815K OI · $3K vol
7Will the Democratic Party hold more than 52 seats in the 120th Congress?
21%
K
$179K OI · $3K vol
8Will Mallory McMorrow endorse Abdul El-Sayed in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?
<1%
P
$20 OI · $2K vol
84%
K
$2.4M OI · $2K vol
10Will Benjamin Ambrose be the MI-02 Democratic nominee?
90%
P
$2K OI · $1K vol
Aug 6TNTennessee Congressional PrimaryPrimary
Aug 8HIHawaii Congressional PrimaryPrimary
Aug 11ALAlabama Congressional PrimaryPrimary
Aug 11CTConnecticut Congressional PrimaryPrimary
Aug 11MNMinnesota Congressional PrimaryPrimary
Aug 11VTVermont Congressional PrimaryPrimary
Aug 11WIWisconsin Congressional PrimaryPrimary
Aug 18AKAlaska Congressional PrimaryPrimary
Election dates via FEC filings.

Prices shown here are live market probabilities, not forecasts — they reflect what traders are willing to pay right now, aggregated across every linked venue. A 62% price means the market currently prices that outcome at roughly 62 cents on the dollar, not that it is 62% likely to occur in any statistical sense.

Where both Kalshi and Polymarket list a race, we show the highest price across venues so the page always reflects the most confident quote available.