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2026 Midterm Election Odds

LIVE · updated 8s ago

Live 2026 midterm odds — Senate, House and Governor races — aggregated across Kalshi and Polymarket.

24h volume

$7.3M

Actual USD traded

Open interest

$216.8M

1.5K markets

Active markets

1.3K

437 events

Venues

3

Priced live

01 · Who controls Congress?

SENATE

—

Control of the Senate is a toss-up.

$0 24h volume across Kalshi & Polymarket · 45 days to Election Day · Majority: 51 seats

HOUSE

90%

Democrats have a 90% chance to control the House.

By venue

K90%

$452K 24h volume across Kalshi & Polymarket · 45 days to Election Day · Majority: 218 seats

02 · The maps6 races

Senate · 6 races

AK

ME

VT

NH

WA

ID

MT

ND

MN

WI

MI

NY

MA

RI

OR

NV

WY

SD94%

IA

IL

IN

PA

NJ

CT

CA

UT

CO

NE

MO

KY

OH

WV

VA

MD

DE

AZ

NM

KS74%

AR

TN

NC

SC

DC

OK

LA93%

MS

AL95%

GA95%

HI

TX42%

FL

Safe/Lean D Toss-up Safe/Lean R No 2026 raceVenues pricing the race:KPUS

State deep dives: California →

03 · The battlegrounds

Lean Democratic · 1

SENGeorgia · Dem

P95%

$154K OI · $7K vol

Toss-ups · 1

SENTexas · GOP

P42%

$298K OI · $531 vol

Lean Republican · 4

SENAlabama · GOP

P95%

SENKansas · GOP

P74%

$1K OI · $400 vol

SENLouisiana · GOP

P93%

$5K OI

SENSouth Dakota · GOP

P94%

$8 vol

04 · House races28 districts

AL-05GOP

P95%

AZ-04Dem

P95%

AZ-06Dem

P83%

AZ-08GOP

P84%

CA-23GOP

P93%

CA-25Dem

P95%

CA-50Dem

P95%

CO-05GOP

P69%

FL-18GOP

P92%

$46 vol

IL-03Dem

P96%

05 · Seat counts

House

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49+5%

Above 493%

06 · Most traded10 markets

Market

Yes

Venues

Activity

1Will Democrats win the House in 2026?

90%

K

$4.0M OI · $276K vol

2Will Republicans win the House in 2026?

11%

K

$6.8M OI · $176K vol

3Who will win the governorship in California?

96%

K

$935K OI · $35K vol

4Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?

95%

P

$42K OI · $7K vol

5Will the Democratic party win the governorship in New York

93%

K

$293K OI · $6K vol

6Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-12 House seat?

97%

P

$3K vol

7Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Ohio

57%

K

$296K OI · $2K vol

8Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?

78%

P

$1K vol

9Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?

80%

P

$1K vol

10Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Kansas

31%

K

$8K OI · $1K vol

07 · Election calendar

Nov 32026 U.S. General ElectionGeneral

Nov 3LALouisiana Congressional House ElectionPrimary

Election dates via FEC filings.

08 · How to read these odds

Prices shown here are live market probabilities, not forecasts — they reflect what traders are willing to pay right now, aggregated across every linked venue. A 62% price means the market currently prices that outcome at roughly 62 cents on the dollar, not that it is 62% likely to occur in any statistical sense.

Where both Kalshi and Polymarket list a race, we show the highest price across venues so the page always reflects the most confident quote available.

09 · More state pages

California Georgia Michigan New York Arizona