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Politics prediction markets

LIVE · updated 4m ago

Election and policy markets.

1Today's politics news2Live odds3Save & track
24h Politics Volume
$7.1M
23,915 markets · all markets ↓
Moving now24h · top 8 movers
1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?$920K vol
0%
Will Belete Molla be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?$582K vol
4%
NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?$520K vol
72%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?$261K vol
71%
Who will win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary? - Darline Graham Nordone$224K vol
31%
Who will win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary? - Ralph Norman$181K vol
28%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?$167K vol
1%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?$105K vol

FBI raids home of former Rep. Eric Swalwell and seizes electronic devices amid sexual misconduct investigation

Federal authorities executed a search warrant at Eric Swalwell's residence to seize electronic devices as part of an ongoing criminal sexual misconduct inquiry.

Why it mattersA former member of Congress facing a criminal investigation is a top-tier political story.

Democratic Socialist Angie Nixon Wins Florida Senate Primary, Defeating Alexander Vindman

Florida State Representative Angie Nixon's primary victory over Alexander Vindman marks a significant win for the progressive left in a challenging state.

Why it mattersThe upset victory of a progressive candidate in a major primary contest is a critical electoral story.
23,915 in rollup · sorted by volume

The same prediction markets that move the headlines above — priced live across Kalshi and the Polymarket family. Filter by sport to dig in.

Top politics markets12 of 56 · sorted by volume
MarketYesVolumeKKalshiPPolymarket
Who will win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary? - Darline Graham Nordone
Yes
71%$224KK71%
NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?
No
4%$520KP4%
Will Republicans win the U.S. Senate in 2026? - Republican Party
Yes
54%$51KK54%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
No
4%$80KP0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Yes
71%$77KP71%
Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary of United States? - ::
Yes
43%$46KK43%
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Texas? - Republican party:: Republican party
Yes
52%$27KK52%
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
Yes
53%$28KP53%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
No
5%$54KK4%P5%