Politics prediction markets
LIVE · updated 2m agoElection and policy markets.
1Today's politics news2Live odds3Save & track
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Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?$857K vol23%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$315K vol0%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?$229K vol6%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?$180K vol2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$153K vol82%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?$136K vol56%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$86K vol1%
Iran leadership change by July 31?$77K volThe same prediction markets that move the headlines above — priced live across Kalshi and the Polymarket family. Filter by sport to dig in.
MarketYesVolumeKKalshiPPolymarket
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
56%$86K—P56%Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
23%$315K—P23%Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
82%$136K—P82%Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
58%$22K—P58%Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
56%$11K—P56%Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
6%$180K—P6%Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
44%$9K—P44%Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
29%$26K—P29%Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?
43%$8K—P43%