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Will the U.S. Confirm That Aliens Exist?

These contracts are cumulative. More than one can resolve Yes.

Highest probability
BJ2
Before Jan 20, 202924.5% estimated probability
+308
Momentum Leader
+1.0pp
Before 2028
Largest Venue Spread
--
No cross-venue spread
24H Volume
$5K
Actual USD traded
Open Interest
6.5M
8 current contracts
Cumulative contracts

Threshold and deadline probabilities

Format
Sort
ContractAggregatedSpreadVolume14D TrendKKALSHI
BJ2
Before Jan 20, 2029
$170 24h1 venues
+308
↑ +0.0pp
--$170+30824¢–25¢$170
B2
Before 2028
$156 24h1 venues
+471
↑ +1.0pp
--$156+47117¢–18¢$156
B2
Before 2027
$120 24h1 venues
+1225
↑ +0.2pp
--$120+12258¢–8¢$120
BD
Before December
$2 24h1 venues
+2757
↑ +0.0pp
--$2+27573¢–4¢$2
BN
Before November
$5K 24h1 venues
+3900
↓ 2.0pp
--$5K+39002¢–3¢$5K
BO
Before October
$0 24h1 venues
+3900
↓ 1.0pp
--$0+39002¢–3¢$0
BS
Before September
$0 24h1 venues
+6567
↑ +0.0pp
--$0+65671¢–2¢$0
BA
Before August
$0 24h1 venues
+9900
↑ +0.0pp
--$0+9900Ask 1¢$0
BJ2
Before Jan 20, 2029
$170 24h1 venues
14D
AGG+308↑ +0.0pp
Spread--Vol$170
K+308
24¢–25¢$170
B2
Before 2028
$156 24h1 venues
14D
AGG+471↑ +1.0pp
Spread--Vol$156
K+471
17¢–18¢$156
B2
Before 2027
$120 24h1 venues
14D
AGG+1225↑ +0.2pp
Spread--Vol$120
K+1225
8¢–8¢$120
BD
Before December
$2 24h1 venues
14D
AGG+2757↑ +0.0pp
Spread--Vol$2
K+2757
3¢–4¢$2
BN
Before November
$5K 24h1 venues
14D
AGG+3900↓ 2.0pp
Spread--Vol$5K
K+3900
2¢–3¢$5K
BO
Before October
$0 24h1 venues
14D
AGG+3900↓ 1.0pp
Spread--Vol$0
K+3900
2¢–3¢$0
BS
Before September
$0 24h1 venues
14D
AGG+6567↑ +0.0pp
Spread--Vol$0
K+6567
1¢–2¢$0
BA
Before August
$0 24h1 venues
14D
AGG+9900↑ +0.0pp
Spread--Vol$0
K+9900
Ask 1¢$0
Price History

Before Jan 20, 2029 chart

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